The Long Road Ahead: Budget Avoids Deep Cuts

With the sequester upon us, Fairfax County is gearing up for tough times ahead.  According to the Washington Post, Fairfax County executive Ed Long has proposed a budget that would keep spending levels at current levels while increasing property taxes by around $260 for the average household.

All and all that is good news for the residents of the County, particularly its employees.  It also was a lot worse than what was anticipated after Long asked the heads of all agencies to prepare for budget cuts of up to 5% in anticipation of the sequester.

That said, Long has proposed eliminating employee pay raises for the times being, a big blow to County employees.  Long also plans to accomplish modest cuts this year by eliminating some 91 county jobs, 79 of which are already vacant.

Of course, this is only a proposed budget at this point.  The Board of Supervisors will vote to approve the final County budget for the next fiscal year on April 30th. 

Countdown To Doomsday

Well folks, it looks like it is finally going to happen.

Friday will be March 1, which marks the start of sequestration and the end of Fairfax County as we know it.

Overall, some 80,000 government contracting jobs in the county could be put in jeopardy as a result of the reduced defense spending inherent in the sequester.  These loses would in turn have a negative effect on housing prices, which forms the cornerstone of local revenues. 

The county also takes in revenue from commercial real estate.  This means that if businesses close as a result of the sequester, than that is even more revenue lost for the county.

In short, the budget for Fairfax County is about to take a big hit.  It probably won’t be felt immediately, but I would keep my eye on the budget for fiscal 2014.  It could be ugly.

Fairfax County Supervisor Sharon Bulova acknowledged as much in an article published on the website of WTOP last Thursday.

In the article, Bulova said that the sequester could mean cuts in local services, including parks, libraries, and public safety.

In addition, the County could be forced to raise property taxes to compensate for falling revenues, Bulova stated. 

Everyone in the county better buckle down for a long slow economic decline.

The party is finally over for Fairfax.

Governor Urges Action To Stop Sequestration

At long last the dreaded apocalyptic event known as sequestration is finally at our doorstep, and our local and state leaders are pulling out all of the stops to make sure it doesn’t happen.

For those of you who have haven’t been following this story, sequestration is the term used to describe the estimated $1.2 trillion in automatic federal spending cuts that will go into effect on March 1^st, unless Congress takes action to prevent or delay them.  Half of these cuts will affect domestic programs, and half will affect military spending.

Virginia, with its heavy reliance on the defense industry, and Northern Virginia in particular, would be particularly badly damaged by these cuts. 

The cuts could also have all sorts of negative unintended consequences for the overall health of the US economy.  For example, the President recently warned that sequestration could lead to meat shortages across the country, due to cutbacks in meat inspectors. 

On Monday Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell wrote a letter to President Obama, and Virginia’s congressional delegation urging them to do everything possible to prevent sequestration from occurring.  The letter also warned that sequestration could force the state back into a recession.

To make matters worse, evidence is mounting that the uncertainty generated from the mere prospect of sequestration is already starting to damage the local economy.

According to one executive from BAE Systems, this “cloud of uncertainty” from sequestration is already having a major impact on the company’s ability to use its capital and make investments in facilities, jobs and developing new products.

So what is going to happen March 1?

If I were a betting man I would say Congress will vote to kick the can further down the road … all the way until the next election. 

More Madness From Richmond, State Now Drone Free Zone

Despite Governor McDonnell’s claim that aerial unmanned drones would be great for the state, the Virginia General Assembly went ahead and decided to place a two year moratorium on their use.

Sadly Virginia is not the only state to nix drones.  Florida passed a similar measure recently, and in Seattle, the Mayor intervened to prevent the police department from deploying them. 

I honestly don’t get it.  In today’s modern society there are cameras practically everywhere.  Whether it is the red light cameras on the traffic lights, or the security cameras in buildings, or even the cameras Google has installed throughout the country, cameras are very commonplace in the public square.

When did people start thinking that there was a reasonable expectation of privacy for anyone out in public?   When I’m out in public, my expectations are completely different than when I walk into my own home.  That’s why it’s called “public.” 

Secondly, why are police helicopters ok, but not police drones?  Is it because drones can stay in the air longer and don’t cost as much to operate, or that they can fly higher and see farther?

Drones: The Real Solution To Gun Violence

And this leads me to another point.  All around the country, people are talking about what measures we can use to roll back the “epidemic” of gun violence.  Clearly it seems like this is an important issue to a lot of people, regardless of their underlying political affiliations.

Why then are we holding ourselves back from deploying a technology that could greatly reduce violence on our streets?

Without a doubt, un-nammed aerial vehicles could be the biggest asset to law enforcement agencies since the invention of finger prints.

Think about it for a minute. If the bad-guys believe that they are under surveilance all of the time, then they are going to get off the streets and take their illegal activities indoors.

This would effectively end drug turf wars over street corners, and open air drug markets that are an absolute blight on most major American cities. 

Effective drone surveillance could also deter numerous crimes.  Again, why take the chance if you know there's an eye in the sky? 

I know a lot of people are worried about the emergence of a so called "police state" but the reality is that we have a very good legal system designed to keep the police in check.  So long as the courts continue to protect people's rights, then we shouldn't have a problem with drones or any other kind of aerial surveillance technology. 

Does The Governor’s Transportation Plan Make Any Sense?

Right now one of the hot items being discussed by the Virginia General Assembly is Governor McDonnell’s plan to fund transportation projects. 

The Republican Governor is calling for a hike in the state sales tax by about 0.8 cents.  All of the revenue generated from this increase would in turn go to fund transportation projects to the tune of $3.1 billion.  However motorists would actually get a break as the Governor’s plan also calls for eliminating the state’s tax on gasoline. 

 How does that make any sense?

As a conservative, in my mind, the best kind of tax should be correlated as closely as possible with the government service being used by the individual.  In the case of the gas tax, that’s easy.  If you use the roads, you pay the tax.  The more you use the roads, the more taxes you pay.

That’s how it should be.

Here’s the problem though.  While vehicles have become more fuel efficient over the past few decades, gas taxes have remained relatively flat.  This has led to declining revenues for transportation projects across the country.

If you ask me, the obvious solution is to raise gas taxes accordingly.

But such moves are politically unpopular, especially if you are a Republican like McDonnell. 

So then the solution becomes to raise taxes on everything else, thereby penalizing all of the citizens who either don’t use the roads at all, or use them a lot less by making use of car pools, or public transportation.

Moving from a tax that is closely correlated to individual use of government services to a blatant and indiscriminate tax on everything regardless of how much you use an individual service is simply unfair.

It also goes against conservative principals.  I would urge all of my fellow Virginians to urge the Governor to re-consider the faulty logic of this plan. 

Sequestration Updates

 UPDATE: 01/25: The Washington Times reports that the Pentagon is now beginning the process of laying off around 46,000 from its temporary work force.  This is not a good sign of things to come.


Get ready for an economic meltdown folks.  While Congress may have avoided an overly dramatic economic collapse back in January, the dreaded slow down in federal spending, known as sequestration looks like it is just around the corner.  The day of reckoning for Northern Virginia is closing in fast.  Here are the latest updates.

Politico reports (01/24) that many local area lawmakers are losing confidence that sequestration can be avoided.   Congressman Jim Moran of Alexandria was quoted as saying that, “In the next three months, six months, I think only bad things can happen.”  Gerry Connolly, another democratic congressman from Northern Virginia also weighed in, saying that approximately 8% of Northern Virginia’s economy is directly threatened by sequestration. 

In a similar report, Josh Hicks from the Washington Post reported in his blog that a growing number of congressmen from both sides of the aisle are resigned to the idea that sequestration will begin shortly after the March 1 deadline.  That said, some leaders believe that sequestration will only be temporary and that spending might be restored as part of some sort of grand bargain on the federal budget.

In other coverage today, Federal News radio reports that the Defense Finance and Accounting Service is planning to implement severe cost cutting measures in anticipation of sequestration.  According to a staff email sent from DFAS Director Terri McKay, these cost cutting measures will include a freeze on new hiring. 

Will March 1^st be the start of the end for a peaceful and prosperous Fairfax County?

Are We Ever Going To See Any Snow?

What a sad state of affairs. The Washington DC area has yet to see any significant snow fall since the start of the winter.  Temperatures have hovered in the 40-50 range over the past few weeks, making this an unusually warm January.  To make matters worse, predictions of our first winter snow storm proved to be premature.  Initial predictions for snow were in the range of 2-4 inches.  The current forecast now calls for a “dusting” that is unlikely to actually stick to the ground.  In short, you will be lucky to see so much as a single snow flake this evening.

Unfortunately, this seems to be part of a much larger trend.  Last year was the hottest year on record for the United States.  In addition, if 2013 looks anything like 2012, than this will be the second winter in a row without significant snow fall or cold weather.  Could global climate change be to blame for these whether events? It certainly seems to look that way.  Of course some studies have also indicated that global climate change could make winters more severe, making events like the “Snowmageddon” of 2010 more likely. 

Either way, for a lot of Fairfax residents, it seems like an eternity since the last time the area experienced anything close to a "normal" winter.